Intro
I studied in New England, which is the blue wall of those states as known. Not surprisingly, all colleges and universities are Democrats or pro Democrats. Based on my international student identity and what he did, I won’t support trump. But I really feel that around the Democrats live in their own bubble for a very long time losing motivation of change and communication with world beyond.
( Side Notes: The most ridiculous thing I found is that these colleges and universities have a bunch of dissatisfaction with the two parties instead of out first a bunch of shouting revolution of the Communist Party of the United States, itself reduced to a non-mainstream groups and cultural peacemaking enclosure is just, put up posters also take Lenin as an image...)
Failure… what happen
Two points might be consider as the reason cause failure:
Economically, naturally, it goes without saying. Although the United States economic indicators are good, but the macroeconomic data seems to be fully disconnected from the public's sense of body. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index, a measure of the public's physical sense of economic conditions, are not high, and many of Biden's important economic policies are embodied in the investment in specific industries, and it is difficult for the general public to feel.
This naturally affects the second important fundamental indicator, which is the desire for change. In this climate, the popular demand for change has become particularly loud. As seen in this election, blue states like California and New York have also seen a considerable shift to the right, with more voters than ever casting their ballots for Trump and the Republican Party. Behind this, there is also the fact that the state's problems are also being refracted through the election of a president. As soon as Harris entered the race, he tried to differentiate himself from Trump by branding himself as another change, protecting women's right to abortion, in addition to defending democracy as previously emphasized by Biden. But it seems that because the economic problems have always haunted the hearts of the people and have not dissipated, and Harris herself really does not have a good solution to the problem of inflation, and democracy can not be eaten for food, so it does not echo the aspirations of the people.
Change… What happened
Obviously, they both brought up about change, but in comparison, demographically, voters have been changed also.
With Trump in control of the Republican Party, 8 years ago, there has been a fundamental reorganization of the composition of the electorate in both parties. This is reflected in all kinds of polarization and a kind of depolarization.
One is, education polarization: white voters with advanced degrees began to shift to the Democratic camp; urban-rural polarization: white blue collar people in rural areas shifted to the Republican Party; gender polarization: women were more supportive of Democrats, and men were more supportive of Republicans; and sexual minority polarization: the LGBTQ community swung full circle to the Democrats; Another is, Race, is depolarizing: minorities, especially Hispanic males, are beginning to turn Republican.
These changes didn't just happen in this election; it's been a long process. For example, the percentage of low-educated white voters supporting the Democrats, after reaching an all-time high of 64 percent in 1964, has been slowly declining until it is now in the early 30 percent range. Women's support for the Democrats, on the other hand, increased significantly after Reagan began supporting anti-abortion evangelicals.
But in the Trump era, the change has accelerated considerably and has been clearly noticed. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, rural and low-educated populations were hit extraordinarily high, and so these white, blue-collar people in the post-industrial Rust Belt, and also in rural America in general, who felt despised and forgotten by the elites of mainstream American society on the East and West Coasts, ended up being attracted to Trump's populism and threw themselves into the arms of the Republican Party in 2016.
When the results of the 2016 election came in, many people were skeptical. They thought the Republican Party couldn't really suck in those voters because their economic policies couldn't give white blue collar people real benefits. Especially since Trump took office, his economic policies are still dominated by congressional Republicans, including policies like tax cuts, which in turn have not been implemented for any of Trump's own supposedly beneficial policies.
Nonetheless, the results of the 2020 election showed that these white blue collar/rural voters who were won over to the Republican camp by Trump did not abandon Trump and the Republican Party, but instead became more supportive. Not only that, but Trump has garnered the most minority support for the Republican Party in sixty years.Minorities who opposed Trump in 2016 are now beginning to be attracted to Trump's economic mantra, and this is especially evident in several districts along the Texas border where Hispanics are a solid majority. These districts are rural and the population generally has very low incomes, close to the characteristics of white rural voters. Beyond that, a number of other rural districts with high percentages of Hispanics, and even some urban districts, are also characterized in this way. At the same time, Trump has attracted some black voters in the inner cities of large cities.
These changes were reconfirmed in the 2024 election. Because they have increased their own support for the Republican Party in this election. Hispanics, in particular, who do not have the historical hangups that blacks have because of the civil rights movement, are more likely to identify with white positions. Most likely because of the state of the economy and immigration over the past few years, they have become more accepting of Trump's economic populism and believe that Trump is the one candidate who really cares about them.
But this change is not linear. While it's true that the blue-collar class is starting to fall back to the Republicans, the very low-income groups are still more supportive of the Democrats, and instead the middle class with incomes between $30,000 and $100,000 are starting to support the Republicans more. And those earning over $100,000, most likely the highly educated group, are now starting to fall back to the Democrats.
So, in stead of saying Trump wins, I would draw a conclusion that Democrats lose its baseline. The Democrats' voter growth is far from offsetting the voters they are losing. Suburban voters have not been lopsidedly in favor of Harris in this election, nor have women and highly educated voters become more supportive. On the one hand, the economic climate may have suppressed the incentive for these voters to switch to the Democratic Party, but on the other hand, it also shows that there are only so many voters that can be attracted by playing the abortion and defense of democracy cards. In this election, many states had concurrent proposals on pro-abortion rights attached to them, which invariably received well over 50% of the vote, suggesting that many voters did not support Harris at the same time as they supported abortion rights.
That means, in future elections, the two parties' electoral strengths may be switched, meaning that in general elections with higher turnout, the Republicans may have a slight advantage because of blue-collar voters. And in midterm elections and various other special elections with relatively low turnout, Democrats with more politically engaged suburban, highly educated voters may have an advantage.
The stranger… Experience from beyond
There is an idea of Georg Simmel, an early sociologist who developed a theory about a character that he called “the stranger.” It refers to the person who is in a community, but not of the community—an outsider. Strangers are interesting because they see things differently and they make connections that locals might overlook.
Of course, I’m one of those strangers involved in this campaign. Obviously, I saw things been overlooked, which I have to say some shit on, about identity politics losing its control.
Identity politics, which Fukuyama reckons it has become a powerful force in modern, refers to political positions, movements, and agendas that center on the interests, perspectives, and experiences of specific social groups, often based on aspects of identity such as race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, or ethnicity. In identity politics, people organize and advocate based on these aspects of identity, often to address systemic inequalities, seek recognition, or push for social and political rights that align with the interests of their group.
My critics on identity politics are based on two points, potentially fragmenting society into distinct groups, leading to polarization or a focus on identity over broader political unity; Another is overshadowing class issues or universal concerns, might.
Talking about universal issue, it is as unreal as the reporter who came from the Ukrainian front line for the election coverage in the Initium Media report on the U.S. election said, that the other day was witnessing the struggle and grief on the front line, and the other day was hearing from the American people who were complaining about gasoline prices going up by a few cents. It's easy to talk about identity, but ignoring their vision on the nearby where they live for everyday life while boasting caring about human right is not making it collaborative rather than exclusive. Must say I’ve been seen and feel so sick about a group of privileged people living in decent life, talking about fighting for rights of other a group still in living life. I’m not going to hijack the people morally, but people, especially students who are not involved into practice or should say deviate from broader relations of production should not talk other’s life easily. It’s just like the experience of that reporter, on the one hand, seeing who receive those funds to buying makeup, medicine, apparels etc to achieve their characters, while seeing comments in the livestream of election saying we need bread and butter.
It doesn’t mean me against minority or a group of depressed people come to the stage and fight for own rights, as a part of democracy I haven’t been experienced. But, just like the talk between Joe Rogan & JD Vance, one thing lacking of in this kinda of woke culture is forgiveness, which I really agree on. I believed in social progress, but if there is no comprehend and forgive to those people “left behind”, even “revolutioner” cancel or make them silent, I would call it as arrogance of leftwing. At that point, one thing I think the leftwing, or would called self-identified as leftwing, who rejecting communication should learnt from rightwing, or classical rightwing is Politics is about negotiation and compromise.
Behind that, I understand there always be an unbalanced power, so it shouldn’t have a fantasy that everything gonna be solved easily through communication. That makes me draw another argument about - It is true that gender inequality, racial oppression, religious discrimination, etc., all require social resources, and what DMC did on pushing forward those agendas should be appreciated. But this decentralized resistance does not create a synergy to fight larger and more general social problems - the economic inequality is never be as huge as nowadays.
As someone might notice that both the current federal government and both parties have changed dramatically from what people inherently know, and many of them are engaging in straw man attacks or mindless support. The federal government spends 40% of GDP and yet there are so-called "liberals" defending it, taxes keep going up compared to the benefits given to illegal aliens for their own citizens, inflation is out of control and affordable housing of all kinds hasn't seen a reduction in the poverty rate in general... As many Republicans, or the right wing, have pointed out that the Democrats' massive subsidization of illegal immigration is a benefit to many nationals, while the answer Democrats give is "don't vote for trump, which once boasted change as a solution to common economic problems, have fallen into the trap of advocating for "minorities" or I might say "labeled minorities", and they haven't even finished that really well. Labeling even demonizing the opposition as uneducated, short-sighted, stubborn and conservative not only widening the polarization, showing its arrogance but also running away from solving problems of the general economy and livelihoods.
One more thing… side notes for republican
The first question I asked my friends first thing after the election was “where did Bernie go”. As I said, I don't really like either Harris or Trump. If the only one I want to vote for, and the only one I consider “sane” is Bernie.
There was an edited video synthetic a conversation between Zizek&Bernie, which impressed me a lot that Bernie keeps rejecting America is good enough while Zizek insist saying US is better than other Capitalism countries.
As Trump and his supporters often claim to represent “the common”, This confrontation between the common man and the elite has not led to a benign politics but is a poor expression of populism. Maybe the arrogance of the so-called elite, the rigid government, the greed of the big business owners is the cause of all the problems, but as Zizek said in the interview “I am ready to sell my mother into slavery to see V for Vendetta part 2!” - if Simply overthrowing the system without constructing it is really no different from the aforementioned left-wing emphasis on social progress without regard to the current state of society. My experience in China told me, all those fairy tale-like story that there is a Messiah gonna destroy those corrupt bureaucracy, whether from good will or not, always end up with dictatorship. Everyone loves a Charismatic leadership, but the starry heavens above me more makes me dazzeling and the moral law within me more keeps me on my toes.
I met a couple of seniors chatting while hiking the AT line a couple months ago. They were democrats but also quite unhappy with the status quo. I said from my perspective if I were an American but if I paid that much in taxes to help myself to Taiwan defense and whatever other international issues I would weigh in. They said yes, in their day the descendants of people from both parties lived in DC, grew up together and entered politics together, and even though they had different positions they could still work together when they returned to the states they belonged to, but things are different now…
I believe not only DMC, but current us ideology of politics, whether for domestic or international fair should rethink about Cold War, which is more pragmatism seeking common ground while reserving differences, given two other beasts in the east.